Samsung’s narrowed Q4 chip losses fuel bullish 2024 outlook

Sources say the chipmaker already saw a DRAM turnaround in Q4 and is set to post a decent profit this year

A Samsung employee examines a chip product
A Samsung employee examines a chip product
Ye-Rin Choi, Chae-Yeon Kim and Jeong-Soo Hwang 4
2024-01-09 10:27:36 rambutan@hankyung.com
Earnings

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s largest maker of memory chips, smartphones and TVs, said on Tuesday its chip business losses significantly shrank in the fourth quarter of last year – the latest industry indication that the much-awaited memory rebound is just around the corner.

The Suwon, South Korea-based tech giant, already swung to a profit in its mainstay DRAM segment while a turnaround in the NAND flash memory business is also imminent, sources said.

The company said it estimates its operating profit in the October-December quarter to be 2.8 trillion won ($2.1 billion) on a consolidated basis, down 35% from 4.3 trillion won in the year-earlier period.

Fourth-quarter sales fell 4.8% to 67 trillion won from 70.4 trillion won, Samsung said in a short preliminary earnings statement.

Samsung is due to release detailed results, including a divisional breakdown and net profit, later this month.

The fourth-quarter profit estimate came in far below the market consensus of 3.96 trillion won. Shares of Samsung finished Tuesday 2.4% lower at 74,700 won, underperforming the benchmark Kospi index’s 0.3% decline.

(Graphics by Sunny Park)
(Graphics by Sunny Park)

However, the company’s quarterly operating profits steadily improved throughout last year, with a 600 billion won profit in the first quarter, followed by 670 billion won in the second quarter and 2.4 trillion won in the third quarter.

SAMSUNG SET TO REVERSE CHIP LOSSES

Although Samsung didn’t provide divisional performance details, analysts said the company’s reduced chip business losses in the final quarter of 2023 contributed to its steady earnings improvement.

The company’s Device Solutions (DS) division, which oversees its chip business, posted a combined loss of about 12 trillion won in the first nine months of last year.

On a quarterly basis, the DS division saw its operating losses dwindle from 4.58 trillion won in the first quarter to 4.36 trillion won in the second quarter and 3.75 trillion won in the third quarter.

Samsung Electronics chip plant in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province
Samsung Electronics chip plant in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province

Analysts said Samsung likely posted a chip business operating loss to the tune of 1 trillion-2 trillion won in the fourth quarter, buoyed by a rebound in memory chip prices.

SAMSUNG DRAM BUSINESS LIKELY SWUNG TO PROFIT

Since the second half of 2023, a combination of production cuts by chip giants such as Samsung, SK Hynix Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. and the gradual depletion of excess inventory, has fueled a price rebound.

After climbing 13-18% in the fourth quarter, DRAM’s average selling prices are expected to rise by another 13-18% in the current quarter, according to Taiwan-based market research firm TrendForce.

Mobile DRAM, used in smartphones and other smart devices, will see the sharpest spike, potentially rising 18-23%, while PC, server and graphics DRAM chips are expected to climb 10-15%, and consumer DRAM 8-15%, it said.

Samsung, the memory market leader, likely saw its DRAM business swing to a profit in the fourth quarter of last year, people familiar with the matter said.

Samsung's Galaxy line of smartphones on display
Samsung's Galaxy line of smartphones on display

The company has focused on more profitable, high-end chips such as high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in artificial intelligence devices to offset the lower prices of general-purpose commodity memory chips.

Analysts expect Samsung’s chip business recovery to gain traction in the current quarter, with the market consensus for its overall first-quarter operating profit reaching 5.62 trillion won.

For the entire 2024, Samsung’s DS division, including the chip business, is expected to post an operating profit of 14 trillion-15 trillion won, they said.

LAST YEAR’S PROFIT AT 15-YEAR LOW

Samsung said earlier Tuesday it likely posted the smallest overall operating profit in 15 years last year, weighed by heavy losses from its chip business.

The company said it estimates its 2023 operating profit at 6.54 trillion won on a consolidated basis, down 85% from the year prior.

Samsung Electronics outlet at its headquarters in Seoul
Samsung Electronics outlet at its headquarters in Seoul

Last year’s operating profit, if confirmed later this month, would mark the lowest since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 when Samsung posted a 6.03 trillion won profit.

Sales likely declined 14.6% to 258.16 trillion won in 2023, the company said.

Losses incurred by Samsung’s chip business are expected to be offset by strong performance in its mobile and display divisions.

Industry officials said Samsung’s Device eXperience (DX) division, which covers mobile phones and home appliances, likely posted about 2 trillion won in operating profit in the fourth quarter.

Its display business likely saw a fourth-quarter operating profit of 2 trillion.

(Updated with Samsung’s fourth-quarter results in the lead, industry sources’ comments on its DRAM turnaround, and the industry outlook for this year)

Write to Ye-Rin Choi, Chae-Yeon Kim and Jeong-Soo Hwang at rambutan@hankyung.com


In-Soo Nam edited this article.

Samsung ramps up on-device NPU chip R&D; LG Electronics joins race

Samsung ramps up on-device NPU chip R&D; LG Electronics joins race

A robot humanoid backed by an AI-thinking brain uses a laptop (Courtesy of Getty Images) Samsung Electronics Co., in a rare move, has added 200 engineers to its system-on-chip design team at its research center in South Korea to develop neural processing unit (NPU) chips, integral to so-called

Samsung dubs upcoming Galaxy S24 AI phone as on-device AI race rages on

Samsung dubs upcoming Galaxy S24 AI phone as on-device AI race rages on

Samsung's new flagship Galaxy S24 smartphone comes with on-device AI technology (Courtesy of Getty Images) Employees at Samsung Electronics Co.'s Mobile eXperience (MX) division recently developed a habit of referring to the upcoming Galaxy series of smartphones “AI phones,” or arti

Samsung to build $281 million chip packaging R&D center in Yokohama

Samsung to build $281 million chip packaging R&D center in Yokohama

A researcher at a Samsung Electronics chip cleanroom South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s largest memory chipmaker, will build a 40 billion yen ($281 million) advanced chip packaging research and development center in Japan amid improving ties between the neighboring c

New Samsung, LG laptops drive industry shift toward on-device AI

New Samsung, LG laptops drive industry shift toward on-device AI

LG's latest Gram series is its lightest and most compact laptop computer Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Inc. are unveiling new artificial intelligence-powered laptops next month, joining an industry move to incorporate AI functions into their smart gadgets such as smartphones.Indust

Samsung to continue DRAM output cut until year-end; NAND recovery slow

Samsung to continue DRAM output cut until year-end; NAND recovery slow

A researcher at a Samsung chip cleanroom Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s largest memory chipmaker, will continue its ongoing DRAM chip production cut at least until the end of this year as it cautiously gauges the right time to increase its supplies.Contract DRAM chip prices rebounde

(* comment hide *}