South Korea’s Economy Slowed Sharply in Second Quarter

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy shrank 0.2% following the first quarter’s 1.3% expansion

The Yeouido financial district of Seoul, South Korea. The country’s weak GDP print is expected to put pressure on the central bank to pivot toward policy easing to spur growth in the economy. PHOTO: SEONGJOON CHO/BLOOMBERG NEWS
The Yeouido financial district of Seoul, South Korea. The country’s weak GDP print is expected to put pressure on the central bank to pivot toward policy easing to spur growth in the economy. PHOTO: SEONGJOON CHO/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Kwanwoo Jun 1
2024-07-26 09:32:37 The Wall Street Journal Kwanwoo.Jun@wsj.com
Economy


South Korea’s economy slowed at a sharper-than-expected pace in the second quarter on sluggish private consumption and weak business investments, losing steam after a solid recovery in the previous quarter.

Gross domestic product in Asia’s fourth-largest economy expanded 2.3% year-over-year during the April-June period, slower than the prior quarter’s revised 3.3% growth, Bank of Korea preliminary data showed Thursday.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy shrank 0.2% following the first quarter’s 1.3% expansion, according to the central bank. That marked the weakest performance since late 2022.

The latest quarterly GDP data missed a median forecast compiled by The Wall Street Journal from five economists penciling in a 2.4% on-year expansion and a 0.1% on-quarter contraction.

Exports maintained steady growth on external demand during the second quarter, but private consumption and construction investment returned to contraction for the period, the central bank data showed.

Facility investment contracted at a faster pace while government spending weakened slightly during the quarter, the data showed.

Market analysts say a prolonged period of tight monetary policy and higher borrowing costs have suppressed consumer spending and business investments in South Korea.

The weak GDP print is expected to put pressure on the central bank to pivot toward policy easing to spur growth in the economy.

The bank this month left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at a 15-year high of 3.50% for a 12th straight time—the longest such streak ever.

Market expectations are growing for the bank to start rate cuts later this year. A recent poll of economists by the Journal found that some penciled in a rate cut as early as in August while most forecast the start of policy easing in October or November.

The bank expects South Korea’s economy to grow 2.5% this year following 1.4% growth in 2023. It expects economic growth to slow to 2.1% next year.

Write to Kwanwoo Jun at Kwanwoo.Jun@wsj.com

최근 분기별 GDP 데이터는 월스트리트저널(WSJ)이 5명의 이코노미스트로부터 수집한 연간 성장률 2.4%, 분기 대비 0.1% 감소라는 중간 예측을 놓쳤습니다.

BOK chief signals rate cut; warns of rising housing prices

BOK chief signals rate cut; warns of rising housing prices

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong speaks to the press after a rate decision on July 11, 2024 (Courtesy of News1) The time is ripe to prepare an interest rate cut as consumer prices are holding around South Korea’s target of 2%. But it remains uncertain when it will start lowering its

BOK's rate policy back to square one after GDP, Fed comments

BOK's rate policy back to square one after GDP, Fed comments

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong TBILISI, Georgia – The Bank of Korea (BOK) will go back to square one on monetary policy as stronger-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter and delayed rate cuts in the US may make the factors it had closely monitored before a rate m

S.Korea’s inflation holds below 3% for 3rd straight month

S.Korea’s inflation holds below 3% for 3rd straight month

South Korea’s headline inflation stayed in the 2% range for the third straight month in June after its slowest rate of increase in 11 months, raising expectations that the country’s inflation would remain below 3% in the latter half of this year. Consumer prices in June added 2.4%

S.Korea’s inflation slows to 10-month low amid tight policy

S.Korea’s inflation slows to 10-month low amid tight policy

Fried chicken at a hypermarket in Seoul (File photo, courtesy of Yonhap) South Korea’s headline inflation slowed to a 10-month low in May as the Bank of Korea kept its interest rate policy tight, adding to the central bank’s expectations that price pressure in Asia’s fourth-la

OECD sharply revises up S.Korea GDP forecast after strong Q1

OECD sharply revises up S.Korea GDP forecast after strong Q1

Stacked containers await loading onto ships at a South Korean port The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts South Korea’s economy to expand at a faster pace than it previously expected on the prospect of recoveries in consumer spending and investment lat

(* comment hide *}